As a lifelong Orioles fan and someone who grew up watching players such as Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Adam Jones, this is a team I hold near and dear to my heart. After years of heartache and seeing a three-digit number in the loss column year after year, the last three seasons have been a thrill to watch.
The influx of young sluggers serves as a pick-me-up for Orioles fans everywhere. Whether it’s Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, and Jackson Holiday in the infield or Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad manning the outfield, the future looks bright at the dish.
It’s when you get to the mound that you realize the O’s may have a slight problem. Their young stud, Grayson Rodriguez, has struggled to stay healthy throughout his short time in the MLB and will start this season on the IL with elbow inflammation / tendinitis. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, who have both had their share of injury problems, will also start the season on the IL. Along with that hit to the rotation, they lost their ace, Corbin Burnes, to the Diamondbacks in free agency this offseason.
This means that to start the season, the rotation will be headed by 2 veterans in Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton, followed by Dean Kremer and Tomoyuki Sugano, with Cade Povich serving as the No. 5 starter.
Besides Povich and Sugano, it seems like the ceiling of this rotation is capped. Morton will go out there and give you 30+ starts—at least we hope—since he is entering his 18th season at age 41. Eflin will keep runners off the basepaths and deliver quality starts as he did in 7 of his 9 starts with the Orioles last year. Kremer will give them decent outings, but it doesn’t look like he will be an ERA leader anytime soon.
However, there is room for optimism with 35-year-old Japanese RHP, Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano is a two-time Sawamura Award winner (NPB’s Cy Young award equivalent) and has spent his last 12 seasons playing in Tokyo. He is not known for his overpowering stuff; nevertheless, his command is among the best. Sugano walked only 16 batters last year while pitching 156.2 innings. That mark would’ve been good for the lowest number of walks surrendered in the MLB out of pitchers with at least 150 IP last season.
Tomoyuki has an uncanny ability to paint the edges of the zone with his fastball and avoid barrels, two skills that are critical to success at the major league level. He won’t overwhelm you with strikeouts, so his ability to locate his pitches is crucial. Sugano also features a cutter, slider, splitter, and curveball, with his slider being his best off-speed pitch. He saw his whiff rate increase sharply to 25% on his slider last season.
Then there’s Cade Povich—a baby bird who is expected to start the Orioles’ home opener vs. the Red Sox. Povich struggled a little bit last year after making his MLB debut in early June and getting lit up by the Blue Jays for 6 earned runs. He’s shown an ability to strike out major league hitters since then; now it’s all about limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the yard—something I believe can be improved over his first full big-league season.
The Orioles will be seeking their 3rd straight postseason appearance and will also be looking for their first win in the postseason. The last two seasons, I’ve written off the postseason failures as having a lot of young guys who are in the biggest moments of their lives, and the moment served to be too big. As a man in his mid-20s, like most of this team, I could see how Camden Yards in October could be very overwhelming. However, with time and multiple kicks at the can, these moments will become easier to manage and just another day at the ballpark for these guys.
One fact that doesn’t get talked about enough is Jordan Westburg’s injury last year and how much the team really felt it. I won’t throw numbers at you, but anecdotally, we could feel how much he was missed in the latter part of the season. He is an outstanding bat who’s useful anywhere in the lineup and can bolster it while the team is without Gunnar to start the season. If we are fortunate enough to get a healthy season out of Westy, I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a major leap and is playing in Atlanta during the All-Star break.
Lastly, with great young talent comes great responsibility, and that responsibility falls on Brandon Hyde. He’s, of course, not the one swinging the bat, but his ability to allow his players to get into a rhythm is among the most important duties of his job. I think we all know he loves his lefty vs. righty matchups, but there’s a time and a place. For example, pinch-hitting your veteran third baseman, Ramon Urias, with two outs in the bottom of the 9th of Game 1 of the Wild Card series for Heston Kjerstad, in what would be his first-ever playoff at-bat, wasn’t the time nor the place. Yes, I understand, Kjerstad is a lefty, and Erceg is a righty, but it’s not always that simple. There’s a sense of “feel” that must come with being a big-league manager, and if the Orioles want to be great, Hyde will have to learn from moments like these and develop a knack for having have some “feel” for these crucial spots.
Although the Yankees have been bitten by the injury bug, the Blue Jays were very aggressive this offseason and made a plethora of moves, including signing the Orioles’ leader in home runs last year, Anthony Santander. The Red Sox were aggressive in acquiring talent not only at the plate but on the mound too, with the signing of Garrett Crochet. The AL East waters are getting choppy, and the Orioles have just sat by and watched the waves crash at their feet. Instead of spending money on pitching, which is supposed to be Mike Elias’ philosophy, they have dealt prospects for relievers who have served as rentals and barely spent money at the position.
As a die-hard Orioles fan, I don’t want to see this championship window, where we have multiple young All-Stars on our team, not being maximized. If the starting rotation or the bullpen is shaky this season, I’d like to see the front office make moves to address it early in the season rather than waiting until the last minute of the deadline and being shook down for some of their better prospects. I still believe this team has what it takes to win the AL East and have already bet on it at +280, but I’m not feeling as confident as I was placing that same bet the last two seasons.